The Trump administration's decision to ban TikTok and WeChat risks doing damage to smartphone makers. It is Ming-Chi Kuo to address the issue in a new report in which the potential contraction in iPhone sales is estimated should the censorship be definitively applied.
The analyst focuses on the consequences of the WeChat ban on the Apple market, drawing two different scenarios: one "pessimistic", the other "optimistic". In summary:
- pessimistic: the WeChat ban will be extended to the whole world
- optimistic: WeChat's ban will be limited to US territory
With the first hypothesis, the variation in iPhone sales is estimated if the ban is extended to the whole world (therefore China included): well, the absence of WeChat from the App Store would cause a drop in shipments to China between 25 and 30%:
As WeChat has become a daily necessity in China, integrating functions such as messaging, payments, e-commerce, social networking, news and productivity, we believe that Apple's hardware product shipments in the Chinese market will drop significantly. .
Drop that would also spill over to products other than iPhone, such as AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch and iPad: in this case, the contraction in shipments is estimated between 15 and 25%.
Different situation – but still always with a minus sign in front – is that of the detailed ban on the US market. In this case, the contraction in iPhone shipments would be around 3-6%, while that of other Apple products would be less than 3%.
WeChat has long since surpassed 1 billion accounts globally: a significant figure that underlines how the app represents a real business on a global scale and not a "simple platform" for entertainment and messaging. With the pandemic that has almost eliminated exports, China has recently relied on companies such as WeChat (and Alibaba's Taobao) to revive its economic fortunes. Even in Europe, the app is gaining more and more weight and importance, with the more than concrete possibility that electronic payments may soon make their debut.
From here we understand how the elimination of WeChat from the App Store (and not only) can generate a domino effect of large proportions on the entire tech sector, which would risk, among other things, revolt against the United States itself. Meanwhile, in India, the ban has already been active for some time: WeChat and 56 other applications keep company with WeChat. All Chinese, of course.
Apple's smallest TOP of the range? Apple iPhone SE, on offer today by Mobzilla at 401 euros or by Media World at 479 euros.